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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2025 Feb 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 15-Feb 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 15-Feb 17 2025

Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17
00-03UT5.00 (G1)3.332.67
03-06UT4.333.002.67
06-09UT3.332.672.33
09-12UT3.002.002.33
12-15UT2.332.002.33
15-18UT3.004.002.33
18-21UT3.004.002.67
21-00UT3.673.332.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Feb due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2025

Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17
S1 or greater5%5%5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 14 2025 2057 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2025

Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17
R1-R245%45%45%
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 15-17 Feb.



Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

more information for more information

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Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



Also in Quicktime format: Large (269M) and Small ( 60M).



Credits:


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).


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