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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2025 Nov 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2025

	Nov 14	Nov 15	Nov 16
00-03UT	2.00	2.33	2.00
03-06UT	0.67	3.00	1.67
06-09UT	1.67	2.33	1.33
09-12UT	1.67	2.00	1.33
12-15UT	2.67	1.33	2.00
15-18UT	3.00	1.33	3.33
18-21UT	3.00	2.00	4.00
21-00UT	4.67 (G1)	2.33	5.00 (G1)

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14 Nov as CME effects linger. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by late on 16 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025

	Nov 14	Nov 15	Nov 16
S1 or greater	99%	40%	40%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storming is in progress on 14 Nov. A chance exists for an S1 event on 15-16 Nov.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 0830 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025

	Nov 14	Nov 15	Nov 16
R1-R2	70%	70%	70%
R3 or greater	30%	30%	30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 16 Nov primarily due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.