De ruimte - Weerstation Wilsele-Herent

Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Verwachting - tekst

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2025 Oct 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
00-03UT	3.67	3.67	5.00 (G1)
03-06UT	3.33	3.33	4.67 (G1)
06-09UT	3.33	3.00	3.67
09-12UT	2.00	2.67	3.67
12-15UT	2.00	2.67	3.67
15-18UT	2.00	3.33	3.33
18-21UT	3.00	5.33 (G1)	3.00
21-00UT	4.00	5.67 (G2)	2.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely over 16-17 Oct due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 11-13 Oct.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
S1 or greater	10%	10%	10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 17 Oct.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 15 2025 0415 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

	Oct 15	Oct 16	Oct 17
R1-R2	55%	55%	55%
R3 or greater	15%	15%	15%

Rationale: Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely for the next 3 days, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due to the current and potential flare activity of Regions 4246 and 4248.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
for more information
Bigger versions of this page in a new window: New regular size page, New 1280×1024 window, and New 1600×1200 window.

Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.